Modeling of Crude Oil and Other Petroleum Products Spot Prices in Nigeria: An Inter-quantile Regression Approach

Crude oil and other petroleum product spots prices are highly volatile and it has a great impact on economic growth. Change in the price of this oil has significant effect on economic growth and the wellbeing of the population around the world. This paper modeled the fluctuations of crude oil and other petroleum product spots prices at different range of thresholds (quantiles) using inter-quantile regression. The model was implemented on exchange rate data in Nigeria sourced from exchangerate.org and crude oil and other petroleum product spot prices from eia.gov.uk. The study covered the period from January, 2010 to August, 2023 (about 13 years); it revealed that crude oil and heating oil depreciates exchange rate, diesel fuel appreciates exchange rate while Kerosene (jet fuel) fluctuate the exchange rate as shown in the models presented at 0.05 alpha level of significance. The software used for analysis is STATA version 14.0.